mike sodrel

A new Research 2000 poll for WISH-TV shows Baron Hill with a 12-point lead in the 9th District.

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Baron Hill, the Democrat, or Mike Sodrel, the Republican?

The Research 2000 Indiana Poll was conducted from September 29 through October 3, 2008. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

And Jim Shella adds a little color:

Bloomington Herald Times editor Bob Zaltsberg said, "Hill-Sodrel doesn't seem to have quite the pizzazz or intensity that it's had in the last few years."

There will be a debate the week after next and Sodrel wants the candidates attached to lie detectors. He may need such a gimmick to pull this one out.

(Crossposted from BlueIndiana)

(H/T to Thomas at BlueIndiana)

I guess when you're trailing by double digits this late in the race, you'll do anything for attention:

Ninth District Republican Party Chairman Larry Shickles on Wednesday proposed the political polygraphs for Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, GOP challenger Mike Sodrel and Libertarian candidate Eric Schansberg. [...]

Shickles, in a letter sent Tuesday to 9th District Democratic Chairman Mike Jones, suggested that the candidates be hooked up to lie detecting machines at the Oct. 21 event or a separate debate.

"While this format may be unusual, I feel strongly that voters need to be able to make a clear decision without all the usual spin," Shickles wrote.

Sodrel's campaign said he would agree to the proposal, and Schansberg said he also would agree to wear a lie detector. Hill declined to comment. (Source: AP)

Unfortunately for Sodrel and the Party of Desperate Tactics (TM), the debate organizers aren't buying it.

The fact is, the voters here in the 9th District trust Baron Hill, and for good reason - he's spent his time in Congress listening to his constituents and taking their needs seriously. On the other hand, Mike Sodrel closed his Congressional offices after his electoral defeat, leaving his constituents in the cold. Even putting aside Sodrel's obvious inattention to the people of the 9th District, it's obvious that his extremist views and loyalty to the failed policies of the Bush administration are out of step with Hoosiers.

Now, it shouldn't come as a surprise that I have some serious policy disagreements with Baron Hill - but I really respect him and the work he's done for Hoosiers. He's earned our trust, and doesn't need to rely on cheap gimmicks.

So Mike Sodrel finally has a TV commercial on the air - you can see the YouTube version at Hoosier Political Report.

It's a weak attempt at responding to the DCCC's "Millionaire Mike" ads, hitting Sodrel on economic issues, and it comes on the heels of some very bad news for Sodrel. Despite the desperate tactic of "leaking" an internal poll, the latest independent polling shows Hill with a 15-point lead. And according to Swing State Project, the DCCC has spent almost $400K in the 9th district since early September, while the cash-strapped RNCC hasn't chipped in to help Sodrel at all. Baron has been running strictly positive ads for several weeks.

Plus, Baron Hill voted against the Wall Street Bailout bill - the second time, after carefully listening to his constituents back here in Indiana. He's even got a new ad up touting his vote. (Unfortunately, the embedded video plays automatically. Watch it after the jump...)

I just got a fundraising email from Baron Hill's campaign, citing new numbers from one of Sodrel's internal polls. According to the forwarded email, Sodrel's internal poll from Wilson Research Strategies, taken Sept 8-9, shows the race within the margin of error, 44 Hill - 41 Sodrel.

This poll hasn't been publicly released, although it was leaked to a blogger Josh Gillespie at HoosierAccess and reported on at Howey Politics. It shows the race much closer than any of the SUSA polls have shown.

Josh claims that the poll also shows McCain with a 20-point lead (56-36) and Daniels with a 20-point lead (55-35), which is pretty far removed from most of the other poll numbers for the Presidential and higher than the other Gubernatorial polls. (In fact, 56 is much higher than McCain has registered in any of the polls listed on Pollster.) HoosierAccess has the PDF of the toplines here. (I've also snagged a copy for future reference.)

Josh also claims, quoting from the report, "The district is decidedly more Republican this cycle than last." This ignores the fact that in Monroe County alone, there have been more than 13,000 new/updated registrations since the May primary - 5,500 in the last month, and more than 2,300 in the last seven days. The Campaign for Change has been focusing almost exclusively on voter registration in the past few weeks, and they've canvassed my neighborhood at least twice. This poll is an outlier, too, in that it doesn't find the big chunk of Obama supporters who are leaning toward Daniels - something that's been a constant in most other polls this cycle.

Baron Hill is, of course, using these numbers to try and raise funds for even more TV ads. I know I live in Monroe County - which has given Baron his margin of victory in each of his wins - but I haven't seen much activity from Sodrel aside from yard signs. (He did talk to the IU College Republicans a few weeks back.)

It will be interesting to see the next round of financial disclosures in this race, and how much of his own money Millionaire Mike is willing to burn in this re-re-rematch.

The "leaked" email and the full text of Baron's pitch are after the jump...