baron hill

A new Research 2000 poll for WISH-TV shows Baron Hill with a 12-point lead in the 9th District.

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Baron Hill, the Democrat, or Mike Sodrel, the Republican?

The Research 2000 Indiana Poll was conducted from September 29 through October 3, 2008. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

And Jim Shella adds a little color:

Bloomington Herald Times editor Bob Zaltsberg said, "Hill-Sodrel doesn't seem to have quite the pizzazz or intensity that it's had in the last few years."

There will be a debate the week after next and Sodrel wants the candidates attached to lie detectors. He may need such a gimmick to pull this one out.

(Crossposted from BlueIndiana)

(H/T to Thomas at BlueIndiana)

I guess when you're trailing by double digits this late in the race, you'll do anything for attention:

Ninth District Republican Party Chairman Larry Shickles on Wednesday proposed the political polygraphs for Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, GOP challenger Mike Sodrel and Libertarian candidate Eric Schansberg. [...]

Shickles, in a letter sent Tuesday to 9th District Democratic Chairman Mike Jones, suggested that the candidates be hooked up to lie detecting machines at the Oct. 21 event or a separate debate.

"While this format may be unusual, I feel strongly that voters need to be able to make a clear decision without all the usual spin," Shickles wrote.

Sodrel's campaign said he would agree to the proposal, and Schansberg said he also would agree to wear a lie detector. Hill declined to comment. (Source: AP)

Unfortunately for Sodrel and the Party of Desperate Tactics (TM), the debate organizers aren't buying it.

The fact is, the voters here in the 9th District trust Baron Hill, and for good reason - he's spent his time in Congress listening to his constituents and taking their needs seriously. On the other hand, Mike Sodrel closed his Congressional offices after his electoral defeat, leaving his constituents in the cold. Even putting aside Sodrel's obvious inattention to the people of the 9th District, it's obvious that his extremist views and loyalty to the failed policies of the Bush administration are out of step with Hoosiers.

Now, it shouldn't come as a surprise that I have some serious policy disagreements with Baron Hill - but I really respect him and the work he's done for Hoosiers. He's earned our trust, and doesn't need to rely on cheap gimmicks.

So Mike Sodrel finally has a TV commercial on the air - you can see the YouTube version at Hoosier Political Report.

It's a weak attempt at responding to the DCCC's "Millionaire Mike" ads, hitting Sodrel on economic issues, and it comes on the heels of some very bad news for Sodrel. Despite the desperate tactic of "leaking" an internal poll, the latest independent polling shows Hill with a 15-point lead. And according to Swing State Project, the DCCC has spent almost $400K in the 9th district since early September, while the cash-strapped RNCC hasn't chipped in to help Sodrel at all. Baron has been running strictly positive ads for several weeks.

Plus, Baron Hill voted against the Wall Street Bailout bill - the second time, after carefully listening to his constituents back here in Indiana. He's even got a new ad up touting his vote. (Unfortunately, the embedded video plays automatically. Watch it after the jump...)

Since I screwed up my wrist, my posting has been a little light. Until I'm typing normally again, here's some good reading for you:

• 538.com profiles the Obama ground game in Bloomington as part of their ongoing contrast between the campaigns. Now that we're a swing state, we're getting all kinds of attention.
  
  

• Julie Thomas lays out the case against building a new jail - an issue she shares with fellow DFMC A-List candidates Mark Stoops, Elizabeth Cure, and Valeri Haughton.
  
  

• New SUSA poll shows Baron Hill up big - and Obama is within striking distance here in the 9th. If you want to know how that's possible, see the first link above.
  
  

• If you missed the County Commissioner forum at Ivy Tech, WFHB has it online.
  
  

• Yet another poll shows that Jill Long Thompson is close to taking out George Bush's Man Mitch. How many polls can be outliers?
  
  

Please hold the evening of Sunday Oct 12 for the Monroe County Democratic Party's JJ Dinner and election celebration. Joining us as our featured speaker will be Sen. Birch Bayh.

Expect a rousing speech and critical insights into the forthcoming election. Also speaking will be Rep. Baron Hill.

I just got a fundraising email from Baron Hill's campaign, citing new numbers from one of Sodrel's internal polls. According to the forwarded email, Sodrel's internal poll from Wilson Research Strategies, taken Sept 8-9, shows the race within the margin of error, 44 Hill - 41 Sodrel.

This poll hasn't been publicly released, although it was leaked to a blogger Josh Gillespie at HoosierAccess and reported on at Howey Politics. It shows the race much closer than any of the SUSA polls have shown.

Josh claims that the poll also shows McCain with a 20-point lead (56-36) and Daniels with a 20-point lead (55-35), which is pretty far removed from most of the other poll numbers for the Presidential and higher than the other Gubernatorial polls. (In fact, 56 is much higher than McCain has registered in any of the polls listed on Pollster.) HoosierAccess has the PDF of the toplines here. (I've also snagged a copy for future reference.)

Josh also claims, quoting from the report, "The district is decidedly more Republican this cycle than last." This ignores the fact that in Monroe County alone, there have been more than 13,000 new/updated registrations since the May primary - 5,500 in the last month, and more than 2,300 in the last seven days. The Campaign for Change has been focusing almost exclusively on voter registration in the past few weeks, and they've canvassed my neighborhood at least twice. This poll is an outlier, too, in that it doesn't find the big chunk of Obama supporters who are leaning toward Daniels - something that's been a constant in most other polls this cycle.

Baron Hill is, of course, using these numbers to try and raise funds for even more TV ads. I know I live in Monroe County - which has given Baron his margin of victory in each of his wins - but I haven't seen much activity from Sodrel aside from yard signs. (He did talk to the IU College Republicans a few weeks back.)

It will be interesting to see the next round of financial disclosures in this race, and how much of his own money Millionaire Mike is willing to burn in this re-re-rematch.

The "leaked" email and the full text of Baron's pitch are after the jump...

On Friday, September 5, Baron Hill will host the 2008 Southern Indiana Economic Forum at IU Southeast in New Albany.

Bloomington City Councilman - and former DFMC A-List Candidate - Dave Rollo will be among the presenters for the half-day forum. Topics will include gas prices, housing markets, and healthcare costs.

Full schedule of events after the break...

I was very sad to learn today that Josh Huddleston, the husband of Congressman Baron Hill's middle daughter Cara, passed away last night after a long and valiant battle with luekemia. The thoughts and prayers of the entire DFMC membership are with Cara and the Hill Family.

(H/T Thomas @ BlueIndiana)

Some relevant second quarter congressional fundraising reports for Monroe County:

• Baron Hill: $294,587.47 raised, $1,160,436.64 COH (FEC report)
• Mike Sodrel: $193,349.05 raised, $379,358.76 COH (FEC report)

Over in the 4th District, Nels Ackerson posted some decent numbers:

• Steve Buyer: $182,269.08 raised, $628,854.91 COH (FEC report)
• Nels Ackerson: $87,989.00 raised, $177,536.88 COH (FEC report)

Seventy-two Senators just voted to move forward on the gutting of the Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution. Bayh, not surprisingly, was among them. So, I am sad to say, was Obama. There were three amendments offered that would have either stripped telco amnesty altogether, or at least left us with some chance of the Bush administration ever being held to account for their illegal wiretapping crimes:

The Dodd-Fiengold amendment would have stripped amnesty from the bill outright. Bayh voted against this amendment. Obama voted for it.

The Specter amendment would have limited immunity only to those who participated in activities that were Constitutional. Bayh voted against. Obama for.

The House passed FISA today - without the amnesty for the big telecom companies.

I'll let DailyKos' mcjoan speak for me:

First off, Steny Hoyer, I apologize for anything I might have ever said about you in relation to the Blue Dogs and FISA. I was wrong. You were great today. Thank you. The shrewd planning of Pelosi and Reid really tied the Republicans in knots, taking away all of their tricks for derailing the bill through obnoxious and obstructionist procedural maneuvering. Chairs Conyers and Reyes were excellent in sheparding their committee members.